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karosyrup713 karosyrup713 is offline
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked - 09-23-2013, 12:12 PM

Quote:
Originally Posted by Pim Pendergast View Post
This is the same sort of scenario posed by the atheist blog article I quoted from. If I chose one door from a million and 999,998 were opened to reveal nothing, then that would mean there was a 99.9999% chance I had chosen the right door to begin with. I would stick with my choice.

We Christians are top-tier probabilists and statisticians. We don't even have to do our own research; we just quote figures we've heard from around the place. Did you know the probability the big bang created the universe as we know it is about the same as a brick factory exploding and creating a house?

The Monty Hall problem tends to create a lot of contention. It supposedly shows how people can be completely confident in a belief yet completely wrong and how the human mind is a poor judge of probability. Atheists are using the problem to undermine religion in general.

You haven't told us what your religious persuasion is, and you should start a thread in the introduction forum and tell us. But assuming you believe in the big bang theory and evolution, what's the probability that everything came from nothing? What's the probability that God doesn't exist?
Na as I explained in my previous post it's better to switch. And in your example there's a 99.9999% chance you chose the wrong door to start with because as far as your are aware there is an equal chance of the car being behind any of the million doors, so you should definitely change your pick in that situation too.

The big bang theory and the theory of evolution are scientific theories, i.e. they attempt to provide an explanation for observed data. As such they cannot be proved 100% correct, they can only be judged by their ability to explain the observed data and survive attempts to falsify them. I'm not commenting on those.

The Monty Hall problem on the other hand is a mathematical problem and so can be proved, completely, one way or the other. There's two easy ways to explain why you should switch doors:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.
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