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Elmer G. White Elmer G. White is offline
Distinguished Professor of Prayer Healing and Creation Zoology (Baraminology)
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Lightbulb Re: How My Little Pony destroyed my daughter's marriage. - 12-31-2016, 07:21 AM

Quote:
Originally Posted by IAmGamerFun View Post
I'm pretty sure that Jesus wasn't born in a city. I'm pretty sure he was born in a manger in the countryside. It was possible that the area that Jesus was born was Jerusalem territory during the writing of the Book of Mormon but was changed to be Bethlehem territory.
Dear GamerFun,

The game is over. This rationalization is what we call an ad hoc escape. It is a fallacy. Without any other immediate way out of your dilemma, you just dismiss it, and, as a result, either you or one of those responsible for your indoctrination have come up with an idea "that it would be possible".

This is not enough.

We should apply Bayesian probability to this. What is the prior probability of municipalities changing their names or city authorities this way between 40 BC - 0 AD? Can you provide us with some figures? It is also an ad hoc, because it is a simple claim ("it is possible") but you fail to even consider other hypotheses, one which, and, in fact, much more plausible in its prior probability, is the one that Mr. Smith simply invented all this.

We have, as it happens, loads of fictional "sacred texts", much more than the one that is True™. For instance, we have the Popol Vuh, the Tao de ching, The Urantia, Dianetics, the Loose Cannon, etc. Thus, the prior probability of your "sacred book" being an elaborate construction without factual base is much higher than the "possibility of municipalities changing authority". Are you willing to consider this hypotheses, i.e., is your claim falsifiable?

Furthermore, if we look at the actual evidence that is admittedly scarce, we find that Bethlehem was a City by its own right as early as during the Temple period (600-700 BC). Even the name is mentioned (בת לחם). Of course, it is also in the Old Testament that was finished long before the alleged date for your Book of Mormon.

Genesis 35:19
And Rachel died, and was buried in the way to Ephrath, which is Bethlehem.

By all means, you can just decide that a distant possibility invented on the spot is "evidence", but apparently you are also trying to convince others. To attain that, you must do a better job, I'm afraid. The goes for the other discrepancies mentioned in Brother Pim's educated post. Don't forget to test your escape explanations against prior probability.

And, please, learn about the actual history of your religion. The Mountains Meadows Massacre is a good place to begin.


Yours in Christ,

Elmer


2 Kings 18:25 - Am I now come up without the LORD against this place to destroy it? The LORD said to me, Go up against this land, and destroy it.



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