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Arrow The Monty Hall Problem Debunked - 09-21-2013, 01:15 AM

Quote:
Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
This is the famous Monty Hall problem, and the consensus among secular mathematicians is that it’s better to switch your choice. But most people, when they hear this problem for the first time, intuitively believe there’s no advantage to switching and will stick with their initial choice. According to this article from an atheist blog, the Monty Hall problem can be used to undermine Christianity.

Quote:
One lesson from this is that our innate understanding of probability is poor, and a corollary is that there’s a big difference between confidence and accuracy. That is, just because one’s confidence in a belief is high doesn’t mean that the belief is accurate. This little puzzle does a great job of illustrating this.

Perhaps you’ve already anticipated the connection with choosing a religion. Let’s imagine you’ve picked your religion—religion #274, let’s say. For most people, their adoption of a religion is like picking a door in this game show. In the game show, you don’t weigh evidence before selecting your door; you pick it randomly. And most people adopt the dominant religion of their upbringing. As with the game show, the religion in which you grew up is also assigned to you at random.

Now imagine an analogous game, the Game of Religion, with Truth as host. Out of 300 doors (behind each of which is a religion), the believer picks door #274. Truth flings open door after door and we see nothing but goats. Hinduism, Sikhism, Jainism, Mormonism—all goats. As you suspected, they’re all myth.
This would increase my confidence that I must have chosen the right religion. If all these other religions are wrong, mine must be right. The article continues.

Quote:
Few of us seriously consider or even understand the religions Winti, Candomblé, Mandaeism, or the ancient religions of Central America, for example. Luckily for the believer, Truth gets around to those doors too and opens them to reveal goats.

Here’s where the analogy between the two games fails. First, Truth opens all the other doors. Only the believer’s pick, door #274, is still closed. Second, there was never a guarantee that any door contained a true religion! Since the believer likely came to his beliefs randomly, why imagine that his choice is any more likely than the others to hold anything of value?

Every believer plays the Game of Religion, and every believer believes that his religion is the one true religion, with goats behind all the hundreds of other doors. But maybe there’s a goat behind every door. And given that the lesson from the 300-door Monty Hall game is that the door you randomly picked at first is almost certainly wrong, why imagine that yours is the only religion that’s not mythology?
First, I would like to say that people are not randomly born into a religion. Your religion is generally determined by your geographical location, and your geographical location is determined by God.

Acts 17:26 [God] hath made of one blood all nations of men for to dwell on all the face of the earth, and hath determined the times before appointed, and the bounds of their habitation;

If God in His sovereignty had foreordained that I should be a vessel of wrath fitted for destruction (Rom 9:22), He would have seen to it that I was born in Iran and raised a Muslim, or born in India and raised a Hindu, or born in Tibet and raised a Buddhist, or born in Sweden and raised an atheist. The fact that people adopt the dominant religion in their culture is exactly what we would expect to see if Christianity were true.

Second, we need to take a closer look at the Monty Hall problem itself. The secular reasoning behind switching your choice can be shown by the following probability tree.


Don’t ask me what it means. Atheists have a tendency to overcomplicate things. But supposedly you have a 2 in 3 chance of winning the car if you switch your choice.

This defies logic. After the elimination round, you are left with two doors. One hides the car and the other hides a goat. You have two options – stay or switch. Whichever way you go, you have a 50/ 50 chance of winning.

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It’s superstitious nonsense to believe switching because the host reveals a booby prize increases your chances of winning.

The Monty Hall problem became famous when Marilyn vos Savant, supposedly the smartest person in the world at the time – although we know she couldn’t have been smarter than King Solomon (1 Ki 3:12) – wrote a column on the subject in Parade magazine in 1990. In response she received thousands of letters. 92% of the general public and 65% of universities disagreed with her conclusion. Here’s a sample letter from a PhD.

Quote:
"You blew it, and you blew it big! Since you seem to have difficulty grasping the basic principle at work here, I’ll explain. After the host reveals a goat, you now have a one-in-two chance of being correct. Whether you change your selection or not, the odds are the same. There is enough mathematical illiteracy in this country, and we don’t need the world’s highest IQ propagating more. Shame!" - Scott Smith, Ph.D. University of Florida
What are the chances that so many people could be wrong?

With the Monty Hall problem now safely debunked, the argument made in the atheist blog article falls apart. Now let’s take an objective, rational look at the probability that Christianity is the right religion.
Unlike the situation posed in the article where there are hundreds of doors, let’s imagine you’re a contestant in a game show and there are only two doors. Behind one door is Jesus Christ and eternal life, and behind the other door are all the world’s false religions and an eternity of torment in hell. There are only two possibilities, not hundreds, not thousands.

Mat 7:13-14 Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it.

Mat 12:30 He that is not with me is against me; and he that gathereth not with me scattereth abroad.

You appear to have a 50/ 50 chance of guessing the right door, but the game show host, God, makes it easy for you and opens one door, revealing the goat, Satan himself. There is then a 100% chance that the remaining door hides the prize – eternal life. This is exactly what God has done for us in His Word. He has given us two options and has shown one of those options to be perilous.

Deut 31:15-19
15 See, I have set before thee this day life and good, and death and evil;
16 In that I command thee this day to love the Lord thy God, to walk in his ways, and to keep his commandments and his statutes and his judgments, that thou mayest live and multiply: and the Lord thy God shall bless thee in the land whither thou goest to possess it.[/font]
17 But if thine heart turn away, so that thou wilt not hear, but shalt be drawn away, and worship other gods, and serve them;
18 I denounce unto you this day, that ye shall surely perish, and that ye shall not prolong your days upon the land, whither thou passest over Jordan to go to possess it.
19 I call heaven and earth to record this day against you, that I have set before you life and death, blessing and cursing: therefore choose life, that both thou and thy seed may live:

The Monty Hall problem supposedly demonstrates that humans are naturally poor at judging probability, but as I hope this post demonstrates, it is in fact atheists and unbelievers who cannot grasp simple probability problems.


Mt 21:42, 44 Jesus saith unto them, Did ye never read in the scriptures, The stone which the builders rejected, the same is become the head of the corner: this is the Lord's doing, and it is marvellous in our eyes . . . ? And whosoever shall fall on this stone shall be broken: but on whomsoever it shall fall, it will grind him to powder.

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