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Old 09-21-2013, 01:15 AM
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Arrow The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Suppose you're on a game show, and you're given the choice of three doors: Behind one door is a car; behind the others, goats. You pick a door, say No. 1, and the host, who knows what's behind the doors, opens another door, say No. 3, which has a goat. He then says to you, "Do you want to pick door No. 2?" Is it to your advantage to switch your choice?
This is the famous Monty Hall problem, and the consensus among secular mathematicians is that it’s better to switch your choice. But most people, when they hear this problem for the first time, intuitively believe there’s no advantage to switching and will stick with their initial choice. According to this article from an atheist blog, the Monty Hall problem can be used to undermine Christianity.

Quote:
One lesson from this is that our innate understanding of probability is poor, and a corollary is that there’s a big difference between confidence and accuracy. That is, just because one’s confidence in a belief is high doesn’t mean that the belief is accurate. This little puzzle does a great job of illustrating this.

Perhaps you’ve already anticipated the connection with choosing a religion. Let’s imagine you’ve picked your religion—religion #274, let’s say. For most people, their adoption of a religion is like picking a door in this game show. In the game show, you don’t weigh evidence before selecting your door; you pick it randomly. And most people adopt the dominant religion of their upbringing. As with the game show, the religion in which you grew up is also assigned to you at random.

Now imagine an analogous game, the Game of Religion, with Truth as host. Out of 300 doors (behind each of which is a religion), the believer picks door #274. Truth flings open door after door and we see nothing but goats. Hinduism, Sikhism, Jainism, Mormonism—all goats. As you suspected, they’re all myth.
This would increase my confidence that I must have chosen the right religion. If all these other religions are wrong, mine must be right. The article continues.

Quote:
Few of us seriously consider or even understand the religions Winti, Candomblé, Mandaeism, or the ancient religions of Central America, for example. Luckily for the believer, Truth gets around to those doors too and opens them to reveal goats.

Here’s where the analogy between the two games fails. First, Truth opens all the other doors. Only the believer’s pick, door #274, is still closed. Second, there was never a guarantee that any door contained a true religion! Since the believer likely came to his beliefs randomly, why imagine that his choice is any more likely than the others to hold anything of value?

Every believer plays the Game of Religion, and every believer believes that his religion is the one true religion, with goats behind all the hundreds of other doors. But maybe there’s a goat behind every door. And given that the lesson from the 300-door Monty Hall game is that the door you randomly picked at first is almost certainly wrong, why imagine that yours is the only religion that’s not mythology?
First, I would like to say that people are not randomly born into a religion. Your religion is generally determined by your geographical location, and your geographical location is determined by God.

Acts 17:26 [God] hath made of one blood all nations of men for to dwell on all the face of the earth, and hath determined the times before appointed, and the bounds of their habitation;

If God in His sovereignty had foreordained that I should be a vessel of wrath fitted for destruction (Rom 9:22), He would have seen to it that I was born in Iran and raised a Muslim, or born in India and raised a Hindu, or born in Tibet and raised a Buddhist, or born in Sweden and raised an atheist. The fact that people adopt the dominant religion in their culture is exactly what we would expect to see if Christianity were true.

Second, we need to take a closer look at the Monty Hall problem itself. The secular reasoning behind switching your choice can be shown by the following probability tree.


Don’t ask me what it means. Atheists have a tendency to overcomplicate things. But supposedly you have a 2 in 3 chance of winning the car if you switch your choice.

This defies logic. After the elimination round, you are left with two doors. One hides the car and the other hides a goat. You have two options – stay or switch. Whichever way you go, you have a 50/ 50 chance of winning.

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It’s superstitious nonsense to believe switching because the host reveals a booby prize increases your chances of winning.

The Monty Hall problem became famous when Marilyn vos Savant, supposedly the smartest person in the world at the time – although we know she couldn’t have been smarter than King Solomon (1 Ki 3:12) – wrote a column on the subject in Parade magazine in 1990. In response she received thousands of letters. 92% of the general public and 65% of universities disagreed with her conclusion. Here’s a sample letter from a PhD.

Quote:
"You blew it, and you blew it big! Since you seem to have difficulty grasping the basic principle at work here, I’ll explain. After the host reveals a goat, you now have a one-in-two chance of being correct. Whether you change your selection or not, the odds are the same. There is enough mathematical illiteracy in this country, and we don’t need the world’s highest IQ propagating more. Shame!" - Scott Smith, Ph.D. University of Florida
What are the chances that so many people could be wrong?

With the Monty Hall problem now safely debunked, the argument made in the atheist blog article falls apart. Now let’s take an objective, rational look at the probability that Christianity is the right religion.
Unlike the situation posed in the article where there are hundreds of doors, let’s imagine you’re a contestant in a game show and there are only two doors. Behind one door is Jesus Christ and eternal life, and behind the other door are all the world’s false religions and an eternity of torment in hell. There are only two possibilities, not hundreds, not thousands.

Mat 7:13-14 Enter ye in at the strait gate: for wide is the gate, and broad is the way, that leadeth to destruction, and many there be which go in thereat: because strait is the gate, and narrow is the way, which leadeth unto life, and few there be that find it.

Mat 12:30 He that is not with me is against me; and he that gathereth not with me scattereth abroad.

You appear to have a 50/ 50 chance of guessing the right door, but the game show host, God, makes it easy for you and opens one door, revealing the goat, Satan himself. There is then a 100% chance that the remaining door hides the prize – eternal life. This is exactly what God has done for us in His Word. He has given us two options and has shown one of those options to be perilous.

Deut 31:15-19
15 See, I have set before thee this day life and good, and death and evil;
16 In that I command thee this day to love the Lord thy God, to walk in his ways, and to keep his commandments and his statutes and his judgments, that thou mayest live and multiply: and the Lord thy God shall bless thee in the land whither thou goest to possess it.[/font]
17 But if thine heart turn away, so that thou wilt not hear, but shalt be drawn away, and worship other gods, and serve them;
18 I denounce unto you this day, that ye shall surely perish, and that ye shall not prolong your days upon the land, whither thou passest over Jordan to go to possess it.
19 I call heaven and earth to record this day against you, that I have set before you life and death, blessing and cursing: therefore choose life, that both thou and thy seed may live:

The Monty Hall problem supposedly demonstrates that humans are naturally poor at judging probability, but as I hope this post demonstrates, it is in fact atheists and unbelievers who cannot grasp simple probability problems.
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Old 09-21-2013, 08:52 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The root of the Monty Hall problem is Monty Hall, himself. If your boobs are big enough, and Monty wants you to have the car, your odds of winning are 100%. If Monty doesn't like you, then he will trick you into picking a donkey. Being an atheist doesn't help you win the car.
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Old 09-21-2013, 02:48 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Admirable explanation of this nonsense, Dr Pendergast. There's just one thing I'd like to add, re the Vos Savant woman's bizarre claims. These quotes are from the same encyclopedia where you got the debunking explanation from the U of Florida PhD.

Quote:
Despite further elaboration, many readers continued to disagree with her, but some changed their minds and agreed. Nearly 100% of those who carried out vos Savant's shell simulation changed their minds.
Blinded by secular "science", presumably? People should stick to what they know in their hearts and stop "simulating" shells.

However, there was some good news:

Quote:
About 56% of the general public and 71% of academic institutions accepted the answer.
(The "answer" here being Von Satan's claim, i.e. the WRONG answer.) Now why am I not surprised that 44% of the general public, who rejected this tosh, are smarter than 71% of academics?

This just increases my determination to fight against the teaching of academic theories in our schools.

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Old 09-22-2013, 01:32 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Na, it's better to switch.

When you choose from the three doors:
Chance you're right (door you picked): 1/3
Chance you're wrong (one of the two other doors): 2/3

Then one of the other doors is opened to reveal nothing/a goat/whatever.
Those original probabilities don't change:
Chance you're right (door you picked): 1/3
Chance you're wrong (now just the other door): 2/3

There's always a 2/3 chance that you picked the wrong door to start with.

Simple really.

I imagine you're a bit confused because there's only three doors. Imagine the same gameshow where there's a million doors, one has a car. You randomly pick one (one in a million chance of getting it right). Then the host opens 999,998 doors to reveal nothing. Are you going to change your pick to that other door that he hasn't opened? Of course you are, you only had a one in a million chance of getting it right in the first place, it's near certain the car's behind that other door.
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Old 09-22-2013, 02:07 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Quote:
The Monty Hall problem became famous when Marilyn vos Savant, supposedly the smartest person in the world at the time [...] wrote a column on the subject in Parade magazine in 1990.
I see what has been done there: how can a woman be that smart? These so-called "Savants" are just witches - Oh, they can apparently do fabulous calculations (See the movie "Rainman" where a man upsets Jesus and is turned into a retard but then Satan turns him into a retard who can do really hard math.)

The problem with the Monty Hall Problem is that it is, in essence, two games instead of the one game it is claimed to be. For example, I could make the first decision about which door to open and that is 2:1.

Then I could go home and my brother could come along (although I don’t suggest this, my brother has a Tourette’s Demon and calls out “Vote Democrat!” at random intervals) and then be asked if he wants to swap. At this stage it is an evens chance.

Now this is where it gets interesting: If, behind the doors had been Mohammed, Buddha and Jesus, Jesus would have guided me to Him, so I would just know that I had made the right decision.

On the other hand, my brother is being asked to go against Jesus and me and deny Christ as an Equal but Distinct Member of the One True Trinity, and he wouldn’t do that.

You see, with Jesus, we win every time - it's obvious.
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Old 09-22-2013, 02:09 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by Ezekiel Bathfire View Post
I see what has been done there: how can a woman be that smart? These so-called "Savants" are just witches - Oh, they can apparently do fabulous calculations (See the movie "Rainman" where a man upsets Jesus and is turned into a retard but then Satan turns him into a retard who can do really hard math.)

The problem with the Monty Hall Problem is that it is, in essence, two games instead of the one game it is claimed to be. For example, I could make the first decision about which door to open and that is 2:1.

Then I could go home and my brother could come along (although I don’t suggest this, my brother has a Tourette’s Demon and calls out “Vote Democrat!” at random intervals) and then be asked if he wants to swap. At this stage it is an evens chance.

Now this is where it gets interesting: If, behind the doors had been Mohammed, Buddha and Jesus, Jesus would have guided me to Him, so I would just know that I had made the right decision.

On the other hand, my brother is being asked to go against Jesus and me and deny Christ as an Equal but Distinct Member of the One True Trinity, and he wouldn’t do that.

You see, with Jesus, we win every time - it's obvious.
lol, there's no way that's not a joke.
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Old 09-22-2013, 02:17 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Kaos, we are glad you stopped by. As Christians, we take a great intrest in many of the scientific advancements of the day. We discuss higher mathmatics, medical advances, new explosives and many other wonderful things the Lord has made, but we ask that newcomers introduce themselves.

When did you come to Jesus, what is your congregation and what is your favorite Bible verse?

God Bless!
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Old 09-23-2013, 02:31 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaos713 View Post
lol, there's no way that's not a joke.
I assure you, The Monty Hall Problem is two distinct games.
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Old 09-23-2013, 08:51 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Quote:
Originally Posted by kaos713 View Post
Imagine the same gameshow where there's a million doors, one has a car. You randomly pick one (one in a million chance of getting it right). Then the host opens 999,998 doors to reveal nothing. Are you going to change your pick to that other door that he hasn't opened? Of course you are, you only had a one in a million chance of getting it right in the first place, it's near certain the car's behind that other door.
This is the same sort of scenario posed by the atheist blog article I quoted from. If I chose one door from a million and 999,998 were opened to reveal nothing, then that would mean there was a 99.9999% chance I had chosen the right door to begin with. I would stick with my choice.

We Christians are top-tier probabilists and statisticians. We don't even have to do our own research; we just quote figures we've heard from around the place. Did you know the probability the big bang created the universe as we know it is about the same as a brick factory exploding and creating a house?

The Monty Hall problem tends to create a lot of contention. It supposedly shows how people can be completely confident in a belief yet completely wrong and how the human mind is a poor judge of probability. Atheists are using the problem to undermine religion in general.

You haven't told us what your religious persuasion is, and you should start a thread in the introduction forum and tell us. But assuming you believe in the big bang theory and evolution, what's the probability that everything came from nothing? What's the probability that God doesn't exist?
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Old 09-23-2013, 08:54 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by kaos713 View Post
lol, there's no way that's not a joke.

I can assure you Pastor Bathfire never jokes. By the way, niether does God.

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Hee that sitteth in the heauens shal laugh: the Lord shall haue them in derision
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Old 09-23-2013, 08:58 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by Attila's Wife View Post
Nearly 100% of those who carried out vos Savant's shell simulation changed their minds. Blinded by secular "science", presumably? People should stick to what they know in their hearts and stop "simulating" shells.
I actually tried this experiment. The first time I lost by switching my choice and the second time I won. As far as I'm concerned it proves the odds are 50/ 50.
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Old 09-23-2013, 09:09 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by Attila's Wife View Post
Admirable explanation of this nonsense, Dr Pendergast. There's just one thing I'd like to add, re the Vos Savant woman's bizarre claims. These quotes are from the same encyclopedia where you got the debunking explanation from the U of Florida PhD.

Blinded by secular "science", presumably? People should stick to what they know in their hearts and stop "simulating" shells.

However, there was some good news:

(The "answer" here being Von Satan's claim, i.e. the WRONG answer.) Now why am I not surprised that 44% of the general public, who rejected this tosh, are smarter than 71% of academics?

This just increases my determination to fight against the teaching of academic theories in our schools.

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AW
Why would anyone want to stimulate shells? Where I come from you get arrested for things like that.
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Old 09-23-2013, 12:12 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by Pim Pendergast View Post
This is the same sort of scenario posed by the atheist blog article I quoted from. If I chose one door from a million and 999,998 were opened to reveal nothing, then that would mean there was a 99.9999% chance I had chosen the right door to begin with. I would stick with my choice.

We Christians are top-tier probabilists and statisticians. We don't even have to do our own research; we just quote figures we've heard from around the place. Did you know the probability the big bang created the universe as we know it is about the same as a brick factory exploding and creating a house?

The Monty Hall problem tends to create a lot of contention. It supposedly shows how people can be completely confident in a belief yet completely wrong and how the human mind is a poor judge of probability. Atheists are using the problem to undermine religion in general.

You haven't told us what your religious persuasion is, and you should start a thread in the introduction forum and tell us. But assuming you believe in the big bang theory and evolution, what's the probability that everything came from nothing? What's the probability that God doesn't exist?
Na as I explained in my previous post it's better to switch. And in your example there's a 99.9999% chance you chose the wrong door to start with because as far as your are aware there is an equal chance of the car being behind any of the million doors, so you should definitely change your pick in that situation too.

The big bang theory and the theory of evolution are scientific theories, i.e. they attempt to provide an explanation for observed data. As such they cannot be proved 100% correct, they can only be judged by their ability to explain the observed data and survive attempts to falsify them. I'm not commenting on those.

The Monty Hall problem on the other hand is a mathematical problem and so can be proved, completely, one way or the other. There's two easy ways to explain why you should switch doors:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.
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Old 09-23-2013, 12:34 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by kaos713 View Post
The big bang theory and the theory of evolution are scientific theories, i.e. they attempt to provide an explanation for observed data. As such they cannot be proved 100% correct, they can only be judged by their ability to explain the observed data and survive attempts to falsify them. I'm not commenting on those.
As a True Christian™ I am only interested in the Monty Hall problem in so far as it relates to Christianity. The OP was written as a rebuttal to an atheist blog article which attacked Christianity. It claimed people have trouble judging probability and can have absolute confidence in a false conclusion and will often stubbornly stick with poor choices. The secular solution to the Monty Hall problem is just an excuse to deny God, so by defending it you are in fact attacking Christianity. Please start a thread in the introduction forum and tell us what church you go to, what your favorite Bible verse is and how you came to find Jesus. Or are you an atheist?
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Old 09-23-2013, 12:45 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The problem is that the OP was incorrect in his assertion that Marilyn vos Savant's solution was incorrect. It is better to change your door selection for the reasons I've outlined in previous posts. That is:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.

I don't mind what parallels you draw between the mathematical problem and other situations, however you should probably know the correct solution to the Monty Hall problem so you don't draw any incorrect conclusions.
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Old 09-23-2013, 01:14 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by kaos713 View Post
The problem is that the OP was incorrect in his assertion that Marilyn vos Savant's solution was incorrect. It is better to change your door selection for the reasons I've outlined in previous posts. That is:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.

I don't mind what parallels you draw between the mathematical problem and other situations, however you should probably know the correct solution to the Monty Hall problem so you don't draw any incorrect conclusions.
Hello, monkey worshipper, why do you keep repeating yourself. Brother Pendergast has obviously blown your theory out of the water.If I were you I would give up now while you still have a little dignity.
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Old 09-23-2013, 01:24 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Hello, monkey worshipper, why do you keep repeating yourself. Brother Pendergast has obviously blown your theory out of the water.If I were you I would give up now while you still have a little dignity.
I don't worship monkeys, please do not assert as such.

Brother Pendergast has not 'blown my theory out of the water'. It is not my 'theory', it is not a scientific 'theory', it is even a 'theory'. It is a mathematical proof.

Brother Pendergast made assertions that one should not change doors.

I gave evidence why there is a better chance of winning the car if you do change your choice of doors.

My dignity is not on the line here as this has nothing to do with my personal opinions, the correct solution to this problem is always the same regardless of my personal opinions.
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Old 09-23-2013, 02:28 PM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by kaos713 View Post
Brother Pendergast made assertions that one should not change doors.
Brother Pendergast has patiently explained to you that he is only interested in the Monty Hall problem in so far as it relates to Christianity.

Let me try a little exegesis: How do Christ's sheep find the strait gate? The one that doesn't lead to the goat (Satan)? Nothing could be easier:
John 10:7 Then said Jesus unto them again, Verily, verily, I say unto you, I am the door of the sheep.
John 10:8 All that ever came before me are thieves and robbers: but the sheep did not hear them.
John 10:9 I am the door: by me if any man enter in, he shall be saved, and shall go in and out, and find pasture.
The explanation is easy: JESUS IS OUR DOOR. He died for our sins. Forget about cars (worldly goods) and goats (Matthew 25:33). Jesus is the only one in all heaven and earth who has died for you and me. Enter trough the true door (Jesus) to receive the Ultimate Prize (Salvation).
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Old 09-24-2013, 04:57 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

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Originally Posted by karosyrup713 View Post
I don't worship monkeys, please do not assert as such.

Brother Pendergast has not 'blown my theory out of the water'. It is not my 'theory', it is not a scientific 'theory', it is even a 'theory'. It is a mathematical proof.

Brother Pendergast made assertions that one should not change doors.

I gave evidence why there is a better chance of winning the car if you do change your choice of doors.

My dignity is not on the line here as this has nothing to do with my personal opinions, the correct solution to this problem is always the same regardless of my personal opinions.
Why do you bring up the monkey's again? Are you attracted to them in a carnal way?

Anyway why do you keep repeating yourself time and again. All you are doing is putting yourself in a loop of circular logic.

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It is he that sitteth vpon the circle of the earth, and the inhabitants thereof are as grashoppers; that stretcheth out the heauens as a curtaine, and spreadeth them out as a tent to dwel in
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Old 09-24-2013, 05:17 AM
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Default Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The satanic origin of "The Monty Hall Problem" - which, as Brother Pendergast has so aptly demonstrate, is no problem for Christians - should be apparent from the fact that its namesake Monty Hall is a Christ killer who hosted a game show ("Let's Make A Deal") where the purpose was for this crafty joo named Hall to swindle God fearing Christian men and women out of their hard earned dollars.

More like a deal with the devil if you ask me.

Yours in Christ
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