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Default Game Theory: Which Faith Gives the Best Payout? - 01-20-2009, 03:35 AM

I'm sure that most of you are familiar with Pascal's wager. It proves that atheism is a gamble not worth taking. If the atheist is right, then when he dies he's just dead, and the Christian doesn't fare any worse for being wrong. If the atheist is wrong, however, then he will pay for it by burning in Hell for eternity while the Christian receives eternal bliss in Heaven.

The situation can be summed up by the following chart, showing the payoffs of the two beliefs compared to the truth or falsehood of those beliefs.

.Christianity is TrueAtheism is True
ChristianHeaven (+∞)Dead (0)
AtheistHell (-∞)Dead (0)


As you can see, the atheist gains nothing by being right, and the Christian loses nothing by being wrong. You would have to be really bad at math to think there is any benefit to atheism.

Last Friday morning I was doing some street preaching in Raleigh just across Hillsborough Street from the NC State campus, and I brought up this topic. An atheist heckler in the crowd shouted at me, "What if the Muslims are right? Then you'll be in Hell with me!"

I said in response, "You don't know what you're talking about, friend. According to Islam, Christians like me are considered 'people of the book', so in the off chance that Islam is true, I will also go to their Heaven. I would be a Dhimmi, or a second class citizen, but that's better than the Muslim Hell, which is where unbelievers like you would be."

A tired objection that skeptics always raise to the Pascal's wager argument is that it only accounts for belief vs. unbelief, and is unhelpful in choosing among religions. So I expanded the payoff chart to account for Christianity, Atheism, Judaism, Islam, Hinduism, Buddhism, and Wicca.

Before I compiled the chart, I knew how it was going to turn out. Christianity is the only religion where salvation is based solely on faith. All other religions are either partially or completely works-based.

I counted any Heaven as infinite payout and any Hell as infinite punishment. I arbitrarily decided that Dhimmitude in the Muslim Heaven is half as good as being a first class citizen of Heaven, but any fraction of infinity could have been used without affecting the relative payout. I also arbitrarily chose +1/-1 as the values for being reincarnated into a better or worse life, respectively, but any positive/negative fininte numbers could have been used without affecting the relative payout.

.Christianity is TrueAtheism is TrueJudaism is TrueIslam is TrueHinduism is TrueBuddhism is TrueWicca is True
Christian, good personHeaven (+∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Heaven, 2nd Class (+∞/2)Reincarnated up (+1)Reincarnated up (+1)Summerland (+∞)
Christian, bad personHeaven (+∞)Dead (0)Dead (0)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)
Atheist, good personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated up (+1)Reincarnated up (+1)Summerland (+∞)
Atheist, bad personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Dead (0)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)
Jew, good personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Heaven, 2nd Class (+∞/2)Reincarnated up (+1)Reincarnated up (+1)Summerland (+∞)
Jew, bad personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Dead (0)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)
Muslim, good personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Heaven (+∞)Reincarnated up (+1)Reincarnated up (+1)Summerland (+∞)
Muslim, bad personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Dead (0)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)
Hindu, perfect personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Hell (-∞)Moksha (+∞)Reincarnated up (+1)Summerland (+∞)
Hindu, goodHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated way up (+10)Reincarnated up (+1)Summerland (+∞)
Hindu, bad personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Dead (0)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated way down (-10)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)
Buddhist, perfect personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated up (+1)Nirvana (+∞)Summerland (+∞)
Buddhist, good personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated up (+1)Reincarnated way up (+10)Summerland (+∞)
Buddhist, bad personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Dead (0)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated way down (-10)Reincarnated down (-1)
Wiccan, good personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Heaven (+∞)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated up (+1)Reincarnated up (+1)Summerland (+∞)
Wiccan, bad personHell (-∞)Dead (0)Dead (0)Hell (-∞)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated down (-1)Reincarnated way down (-10)


You should already be able to see that if you are a Christian who does good works, then the worst case scenario is that the atheists are right and you're just dead -- but then so is everybody else! But let's go into the details anyway.

Now we have an expanded version of Pascal's wager that will allow people to pick a belief based on the payout.

If Atheism is true, it doesn't matter what you believe or how you lived, because everyone gets the same outcome, so there's no point in picking this one.

If Judaism, Hinduism, Buddhism, or Wicca are true, then what you believe doesn't matter, but how you lived does matter. Since you get the same payout whether or not you believe, there's no point in picking one of these either, but you might want to consider being a good person in case they are true.

Now we are left with the only two where your particular belief matters, Christianity and Islam. I'll draw a smaller payout chart to give a cleaner comparison.

.Christianity is TrueIslam is True
Christian, good personHeaven (+∞)Heaven, 2nd Class (+∞/2)
Christian, bad personHeaven (+∞)Hell (-∞)
Muslim, good personHell (-∞)Heaven (+∞)
Muslim, bad personHell (-∞)Hell (-∞)


If Christianity is true, then the Christian is rewarded no matter what, and the Muslim is punished no matter what. If Islam is true, then the good person is rewarded no matter what, and the bad person is punished no matter what, but the good Muslim receives a better reward than the good Christian.

The worst case scenario for a good Christian is Dhimmitude in the Muslim Heaven if Islam is true, but the worst case scenario for a good Muslim is Hell if Christianity is true. It's far better to be a good Christian and risk being a second class citizen in the Muslim Heaven than to be a Muslim and risk an eternity of torment in Hell.

Pastor Billy-Reuben


Upon request I will cite scripture for all these facts in God's Holy Word.

✝ This is a Christian community and we worship GOD of the Holy bible, the only Living GOD. We worship Jesus Christ, Son of GOD and Savior. Anything else is absurd. ✝
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Last edited by Pastor Billy-Reuben; 01-21-2009 at 08:11 PM. Reason: Better/worse payouts for good/bad practicing Hindus, Buddhists, and Wiccans
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