[Benedict A. Davis]

Re: Paul the Octopus is “Of Satan”

Paul's handlers were wise and 'retired' him before their scam could be found out.

[URL="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/10604336.stm"]

Does anyone know the odds of correctly picking all of those games?

Ask the Octopus he seems to know everything

[Oakland "Reb" Griner]

Re: Paul the Octopus is “Of Satan”

Paul's handlers were wise and 'retired' him before their scam could be found out.

[URL="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/10604336.stm"]

Does anyone know the odds of correctly picking all of those games?

Assuming the mussels presented to the octopus were 'equivalent' (how do you tell?) and that Paul was not picking up any cues from the people in the area, the odds for each game would be 50/50.

I am also assuming Satan takes no interest in how or why the octopus does what it does, and foreknowledge of the octopus's prediction does not influence the players on the field.


So, for guessing correctly 7 times, the odds are just about 1%.


Keep in mind though, you only heard about the octopus that managed all seven, 14 cats were also taking stabs at the game, and the best cat got 6 right, but 4 cats missed them all. There were also several goldfish used for this, and some dogs, a goat and don't forget the newt at Detwiler Middle School. You only heard about the octopus because he got them all right.

[Jo Freddie]

Re: Paul the Octopus is “Of Satan”

So, for guessing correctly 7 times, the odds are just about 1%.

The octopus correctly predicted the outcomes of all seven of Germany's games plus the Spain-Netherlands final.

7 Germany games + the final = 8 games
about 0.4%.

[Benedict A. Davis]

Re: Paul the Octopus is “Of Satan”

Paul's handlers were wise and 'retired' him before their scam could be found out.

[URL="http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/10604336.stm"]

Does anyone know the odds of correctly picking all of those games?

from Daily Finance

http://www.dailyfinance.com/story/media/octopus-has-1-in-128-chance-of-getting-7-world-cup-matches-right/19549515/

World Cup Puzzles: Why Call It 'Soccer,' and How Does the Octopus Do It?

By PETER COHAN Posted 5:00 PM 07/11/10 People, Media
Comments: 2 Print Text Size A A A EmailMore






Sunday's final World Cup match between Spain and the Netherlands got me thinking. Since the global tournament started last month, two things I've read about it have caught my attention: First, the origin of the word "soccer" -- a term used for the game in only a few countries -- and second, the chances that Paul the Octopus could correctly predict the outcome of seven matches.

It's well known that Americans like football, baseball and basketball more than soccer. And those games are set up to be more profitable for broadcasters since they all have built-in pauses that leave time for commercials. But I have often wondered why Americans call the game soccer instead of football.

"Soccer" Came From Britain

The British have a habit of shortening words and adding "er" to the end of them. They called Rugby players Ruggers and had a league of football players called Association Football that was fighting with others British leagues in the 1860s for football predominance, according to the New Yorker. The British shortened the word Association -- picking out the letters "soc" -- and created the term soccer in the same vein. I have no idea how that term ended up in the U.S.

As far as Paul the Octopus is concerned -- the German octopus who has been lowered into a tank of water with two boxes containing mussels -- one with a German flag and one with that of Germany's World Cup opponent -- I was wondering how to calculate the odds of his amazing predictive feat. By landing on the box with the flag of the ultimate winner, so far, Paul has correctly predicted six matches in which Germany played. (His prediction of Germany's loss to Spain brought Paul death threats from German fans.)

Why Paul Has a 1-in-128 Chance of Correctly Predicting Seven Outcomes

Since Paul is only predicting wins or losses -- and assuming he makes his choices at random instead of knowing the outcome ahead of time -- those six matches had 64 possible outcomes, and the chances of correctly predicting what happened in each of them come out to one in 64.

How so? According to BBC News, the chances of Paul predicting the outcome of the first game were 1 in 2, the first and second were 1 in 4, and the chances of correctly predicting first, second, and third came in at 1 in 8. The general formula is 1/[2 to the nth power] where n is the number of matches.

As it turns out, Paul is predicting a win for Spain in Sunday's match against the Netherlands. If Spain wins as Paul predicts, it's worth noting that his chances of doing so are 1 in 128.

Should You Bet on Paul's Spain Prediction?

So should gamblers take their cue from Paul? It seems highly likely that many will. And why not? Paul has been right in six of the last matches where he's made a prediction. Many bettors will wager that his past success boosts his chances of correctly predicting Sunday's outcome.

Moreover, people who set odds for a living in the sportsbook are agreeing with Paul -- "listing Spain as +115 favorites on the moneyline [-- how much money a $100 bet would return --] to beat the Dutch, who have +240 moneyline odds," according to BetUS.

In fact, Paul only has a 1-in-2 chance of being correct today -- that is -200 in moneyline terms (since it's negative it measures how much one would have to bet to make $100).

The interesting thing to consider is that Paul is probably no worse at predicting World Cup outcomes than are money managers at picking stocks that will go up in value. That may be why stock pickers are required to offer legal boilerplate that past performance is no predictor of future results.

Paul's prediction on a Spain win today comes with no such legal disclaimer.

See full article from DailyFinance: http://srph.it/b6TBEv

[Sister Charli]

Re: Paul the Octopus is “Of Satan”

Link:

Bid to hire Paul the octopus as a bookie

• From: AFP
• July 19, 2010 5:34PM

A RUSSIAN betting firm wants to buy soothsaying World Cup octopus Paul and hire him as a bookmaker with a salary of $US5000 ($A5775) a month.


"He will be one of our 120 staff employees," Oleg Zhuravsky, co-owner of Bet League, told Soviet Sport newspaper.

Zhuravsky added: "Our specialists receive around $US3000 ($A3465) a month. So we will pay Paul $US5,000 ($A5,775)."

Paul earned superstar status by correctly predicting the results of all of Germany's games, including its semi-final defeat to Spain. He also was right in forecasting Spain's victory in the final.

Zhuravsky said he was ready to pay the Sea Life oceanarium attraction in the German city of Oberhausen, where the eight-legged oracle lives, as much as 100,000 euros ($A148,809).

Zhuravsky's company is set to sign an exclusive agreement with the Russian Premier League in the near future.

Under the deal, 50 per cent of the bookmaking company's profits will be earmarked for the development of football in the country.