[Thomas Taylor]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The problem is that the OP was incorrect in his assertion that Marilyn vos Savant's solution was incorrect. It is better to change your door selection for the reasons I've outlined in previous posts. That is:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.

I don't mind what parallels you draw between the mathematical problem and other situations, however you should probably know the correct solution to the Monty Hall problem so you don't draw any incorrect conclusions.

Hello, monkey worshipper, why do you keep repeating yourself. Brother Pendergast has obviously blown your theory out of the water.If I were you I would give up now while you still have a little dignity.

[karosyrup713]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The problem is that the OP was incorrect in his assertion that Marilyn vos Savant's solution was incorrect. It is better to change your door selection for the reasons I've outlined in previous posts. That is:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.

I don't mind what parallels you draw between the mathematical problem and other situations, however you should probably know the correct solution to the Monty Hall problem so you don't draw any incorrect conclusions.

[Pim Pendergast]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The big bang theory and the theory of evolution are scientific theories, i.e. they attempt to provide an explanation for observed data. As such they cannot be proved 100% correct, they can only be judged by their ability to explain the observed data and survive attempts to falsify them. I'm not commenting on those.

As a True Christian(tm) I am only interested in the Monty Hall problem in so far as it relates to Christianity. The OP was written as a rebuttal to an atheist blog article which attacked Christianity. It claimed people have trouble judging probability and can have absolute confidence in a false conclusion and will often stubbornly stick with poor choices. The secular solution to the Monty Hall problem is just an excuse to deny God, so by defending it you are in fact attacking Christianity. Please start a thread in the introduction forum and tell us what church you go to, what your favorite Bible verse is and how you came to find Jesus. Or are you an atheist?

[karosyrup713]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

This is the same sort of scenario posed by the atheist blog article I quoted from. If I chose one door from a million and 999,998 were opened to reveal nothing, then that would mean there was a 99.9999% chance I had chosen the right door to begin with. I would stick with my choice.

We Christians are top-tier probabilists and statisticians. We don't even have to do our own research; we just quote figures we've heard from around the place. Did you know the probability the big bang created the universe as we know it is about the same as a brick factory exploding and creating a house?

The Monty Hall problem tends to create a lot of contention. It supposedly shows how people can be completely confident in a belief yet completely wrong and how the human mind is a poor judge of probability. Atheists are using the problem to undermine religion in general.

You haven't told us what your religious persuasion is, and you should start a thread in the introduction forum and tell us. But assuming you believe in the big bang theory and evolution, what's the probability that everything came from nothing? What's the probability that God doesn't exist?

Na as I explained in my previous post it's better to switch. And in your example there's a 99.9999% chance you chose the wrong door to start with because as far as your are aware there is an equal chance of the car being behind any of the million doors, so you should definitely change your pick in that situation too.

The big bang theory and the theory of evolution are scientific theories, i.e. they attempt to provide an explanation for observed data. As such they cannot be proved 100% correct, they can only be judged by their ability to explain the observed data and survive attempts to falsify them. I'm not commenting on those.

The Monty Hall problem on the other hand is a mathematical problem and so can be proved, completely, one way or the other. There's two easy ways to explain why you should switch doors:

- There's a 2/3 chance you picked the wrong door to begin with, so when one of the other doors is opened to show a goat (because the host knows where the goats are), there's a 2/3 chance the car's behind the remaining door.

- The only time you SHOULDN'T switch is when you happen to pick the door with the car the first time, which happens only 1/3 of the time because the car is only behind one of the three doors.

[Thomas Taylor]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Admirable explanation of this nonsense, Dr Pendergast. There's just one thing I'd like to add, re the Vos Savant woman's bizarre claims. These quotes are from the same encyclopedia where you got the debunking explanation from the U of Florida PhD.

Blinded by secular "science", presumably? People should stick to what they know in their hearts and stop "simulating" shells.

However, there was some good news:

(The "answer" here being Von Satan's claim, i.e. the WRONG answer.) Now why am I not surprised that 44% of the general public, who rejected this tosh, are smarter than 71% of academics?

This just increases my determination to fight against the teaching of academic theories in our schools.

YiC
AW

Why would anyone want to stimulate shells? Where I come from you get arrested for things like that.

[Pim Pendergast]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Nearly 100% of those who carried out vos Savant's shell simulation changed their minds. Blinded by secular "science", presumably? People should stick to what they know in their hearts and stop "simulating" shells.

I actually tried this experiment. The first time I lost by switching my choice and the second time I won. As far as I'm concerned it proves the odds are 50/ 50.

[Thomas Taylor]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

lol, there's no way that's not a joke.

I can assure you Pastor Bathfire never jokes. By the way, niether does God.

Psalms 2:4

Hee that sitteth in the heauens shal laugh: the Lord shall haue them in derision

[Pim Pendergast]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Imagine the same gameshow where there's a million doors, one has a car. You randomly pick one (one in a million chance of getting it right). Then the host opens 999,998 doors to reveal nothing. Are you going to change your pick to that other door that he hasn't opened? Of course you are, you only had a one in a million chance of getting it right in the first place, it's near certain the car's behind that other door.

This is the same sort of scenario posed by the atheist blog article I quoted from. If I chose one door from a million and 999,998 were opened to reveal nothing, then that would mean there was a 99.9999% chance I had chosen the right door to begin with. I would stick with my choice.

We Christians are top-tier probabilists and statisticians. We don't even have to do our own research; we just quote figures we've heard from around the place. Did you know the probability the big bang created the universe as we know it is about the same as a brick factory exploding and creating a house?

The Monty Hall problem tends to create a lot of contention. It supposedly shows how people can be completely confident in a belief yet completely wrong and how the human mind is a poor judge of probability. Atheists are using the problem to undermine religion in general.

You haven't told us what your religious persuasion is, and you should start a thread in the introduction forum and tell us. But assuming you believe in the big bang theory and evolution, what's the probability that everything came from nothing? What's the probability that God doesn't exist?

[Ezekiel Bathfire]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

lol, there's no way that's not a joke.

I assure you, The Monty Hall Problem is two distinct games.

[Alvin Moss]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Kaos, we are glad you stopped by. As Christians, we take a great intrest in many of the scientific advancements of the day. We discuss higher mathmatics, medical advances, new explosives and many other wonderful things the Lord has made, but we ask that newcomers introduce themselves.

When did you come to Jesus, what is your congregation and what is your favorite Bible verse?

God Bless!

[karosyrup713]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

I see what has been done there: how can a woman be that smart? These so-called "Savants" are just witches - Oh, they can apparently do fabulous calculations (See the movie "Rainman" where a man upsets Jesus and is turned into a retard but then Satan turns him into a retard who can do really hard math.)

The problem with the Monty Hall Problem is that it is, in essence, two games instead of the one game it is claimed to be. For example, I could make the first decision about which door to open and that is 2:1.

Then I could go home and my brother could come along (although I don’t suggest this, my brother has a Tourette’s Demon and calls out “Vote Democrat!” at random intervals) and then be asked if he wants to swap. At this stage it is an evens chance.

Now this is where it gets interesting: If, behind the doors had been Mohammed, Buddha and Jesus, Jesus would have guided me to Him, so I would just know that I had made the right decision.

On the other hand, my brother is being asked to go against Jesus and me and deny Christ as an Equal but Distinct Member of the One True Trinity, and he wouldn’t do that.

You see, with Jesus, we win every time - it's obvious.

lol, there's no way that's not a joke.

[Ezekiel Bathfire]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The Monty Hall problem became famous when Marilyn vos Savant, supposedly the smartest person in the world at the time [...] wrote a column on the subject in Parade magazine in 1990.

I see what has been done there: how can a woman be that smart? These so-called "Savants" are just witches - Oh, they can apparently do fabulous calculations (See the movie "Rainman" where a man upsets Jesus and is turned into a retard but then Satan turns him into a retard who can do really hard math.)

The problem with the Monty Hall Problem is that it is, in essence, two games instead of the one game it is claimed to be. For example, I could make the first decision about which door to open and that is 2:1.

Then I could go home and my brother could come along (although I don’t suggest this, my brother has a Tourette’s Demon and calls out “Vote Democrat!” at random intervals) and then be asked if he wants to swap. At this stage it is an evens chance.

Now this is where it gets interesting: If, behind the doors had been Mohammed, Buddha and Jesus, Jesus would have guided me to Him, so I would just know that I had made the right decision.

On the other hand, my brother is being asked to go against Jesus and me and deny Christ as an Equal but Distinct Member of the One True Trinity, and he wouldn’t do that.

You see, with Jesus, we win every time - it's obvious.

[karosyrup713]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Na, it's better to switch.

When you choose from the three doors:
Chance you're right (door you picked): 1/3
Chance you're wrong (one of the two other doors): 2/3

Then one of the other doors is opened to reveal nothing/a goat/whatever.
Those original probabilities don't change:
Chance you're right (door you picked): 1/3
Chance you're wrong (now just the other door): 2/3

There's always a 2/3 chance that you picked the wrong door to start with.

Simple really.

I imagine you're a bit confused because there's only three doors. Imagine the same gameshow where there's a million doors, one has a car. You randomly pick one (one in a million chance of getting it right). Then the host opens 999,998 doors to reveal nothing. Are you going to change your pick to that other door that he hasn't opened? Of course you are, you only had a one in a million chance of getting it right in the first place, it's near certain the car's behind that other door.

[Attila's Wife]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

Admirable explanation of this nonsense, Dr Pendergast. There's just one thing I'd like to add, re the Vos Savant woman's bizarre claims. These quotes are from the same encyclopedia where you got the debunking explanation from the U of Florida PhD.

Despite further elaboration, many readers continued to disagree with her, but some changed their minds and agreed. Nearly 100% of those who carried out vos Savant's shell simulation changed their minds.

Blinded by secular "science", presumably? People should stick to what they know in their hearts and stop "simulating" shells.

However, there was some good news:

About 56% of the general public and 71% of academic institutions accepted the answer.

(The "answer" here being Von Satan's claim, i.e. the WRONG answer.) Now why am I not surprised that 44% of the general public, who rejected this tosh, are smarter than 71% of academics?

This just increases my determination to fight against the teaching of academic theories in our schools.

YiC
AW

[Nobar King]

Re: The Monty Hall Problem Debunked

The root of the Monty Hall problem is Monty Hall, himself. If your boobs are big enough, and Monty wants you to have the car, your odds of winning are 100%. If Monty doesn't like you, then he will trick you into picking a donkey. Being an atheist doesn't help you win the car.