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Re: Fewer members?
So what's the chance of a volcano erupting right after we prayed for it to happen?
Let's set granularity to a generous 1 year -- this biases the analysis in your favor. And let's also say that there is a 1/200 chance every year that a volcano does erupt.
That means that there's a 0.5% chance that the volcano will erupt in the same year as the prayer. Note that we did not pray for this volcano to erupt in previous years, ONLY in this year. If we lower granularity to include the fact that the eruption took place shortly after our public prayer, the chance becomes even smaller.
But still, it's easy to see that even taking into account very generous a priori conditions, we can say with 99.5% probability that our prayer did work as expected.
Originally posted by Tunahouse
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Let's set granularity to a generous 1 year -- this biases the analysis in your favor. And let's also say that there is a 1/200 chance every year that a volcano does erupt.
That means that there's a 0.5% chance that the volcano will erupt in the same year as the prayer. Note that we did not pray for this volcano to erupt in previous years, ONLY in this year. If we lower granularity to include the fact that the eruption took place shortly after our public prayer, the chance becomes even smaller.
But still, it's easy to see that even taking into account very generous a priori conditions, we can say with 99.5% probability that our prayer did work as expected.
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